Milano, 26 ott. (AdnKronos) – I mercati e la Federal Reserve “sono ragionevolmente bene allineati: i mercati non sembrano aspettarsi che la Fed alzi i tassi e secondo noi la Fed rimarrà ferma. Ci sono due potenziali strade che la Federal Reserve potrebbe percorrere nella riunione di ottobre che inizierà domani per concludersi mercoledì: iniziare a segnalare che stanno capitolando su un rialzo dei tassi già quest’anno, oppure rimanere cautamente ottimistici per un rialzo in dicembre. Ci aspettiamo la seconda”. Lo prevedono Michael S. Hanson, Shyam Rajan e Ian Gordon, analisti di BofA Merrill Lynch, un report dedicato alla prossima riunione del Federal Open Market Committee.
“Come la banca centrale leggerà gli ultimi dati e i rischi globali e finanziari sarà il segnali più probabile che indicherà per quale scelta propendono. La sfida per la Fed è che, mentre lo scenario globale non è così sconcertante come era in settembre, i dati Usa sono stati più misti. Tuttavia, la maggior parte della debolezza ha riguardato settori esposti alla concorrenza globale come la manifattura, mentre i servizi, l’immobiliare e molti indicatori legati ai consumi e all’occupazione puntano ancora in una direzione positiva. Ci aspettiamo che la Fed propenda per la direzione di tenere un rialzo a dicembre come un’opzione”.
There are two potential paths the Fed can go down at the October meeting: start to signal that they are capitulating on rate hikes this year, or remain cautious optimistic for liftoff in December. We expect the latter. How they characterize the recent data and the global and financial risks will be the most likely signs of which path they are leaning towards. The challenge for the Fed is that while the global backdrop is not as disconcerting as it was back in September —helped along by further easing by the PBoC and a dovish assessment of policy options from the ECB—the US data have been more mixed. However, most of the weakness has been in globally-exposed sectors like manufacturing; meanwhile services, housing and many consumer and labor-market indicators are still pointing in a positive direction. We expect the Fed to lean in the direction of keeping December liftoff an option, and that remains our modal forecast for the first rate hike—even though the likelihood of liftoff at any specific upcoming meeting remains below 50%, in our view.

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Communication breakdown
For the October FOMC meeting, markets and the Fed are reasonably well aligned: markets do not appear to expect the Fed to hike, and in our view the Fed will stand pat. However, market pricing diverges sharply from Fed communications thereafter. As the Chart of the Day shows, the market is now not pricing the first Fed rate hike until well into 2016. Fed officials, on the other hand, continue to characterize every upcoming meeting as “live,”and the vast majority still seems to favor hiking in 2015 based on speeches and the dot plot. As a result, language changes to the October FOMC statement, while likely not substantial, should lean in the direction of allowing the Fed maximum flexibility. If the Chart of the Day can be interpreted as suggesting market participants expect a strongly dovish message from the October meeting, they may be disappointed.